USDA's first corn, soybean crop estimates highlight the Aug. 12 crop reports

( )

USDA’s initial survey-based corn and soybean crop estimates will be released on Friday. Those estimates are based mostly on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. The first cotton crop estimate will include objective yield data from Texas. Traders expect declines in production compared with USDA’s projections last month. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey (Bloomberg for cotton):

Expectations for 2022
U.S. Production

                Corn     

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

14.392

175.9

81.837

Range

14.192 - 14.553

173.2 - 177.6

81.500 - 82.300

USDA July proj.

14.505

177.0

81.940

 

Soybeans

 

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

4.481

51.1

87.724

Range

4.367 - 4.590

49.9 - 52.5

87.300 - 88.910

USDA July proj.

4.505

51.5

87.511

 

Cotton

 

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

Harvested acres (mil.)

Average est.

14.75

NA

NA

Range

14.00 - 15.75

NA

NA

USDA July proj.

15.50

870

8.55

 

 

Spring wheat will be the focus in USDA’s wheat crop estimates... Any changes to the U.S. wheat crop estimates this month are typically minor. Much of the focus will be on the spring wheat crop estimate, though traders expect only a modest increase in that figure versus last month. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey.

Expectations for
U.S. Wheat Production

All wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.791

Range

1.774 – 1.804

USDA July

1.781

USDA 2021

1.646

 

Winter wheat – billion bu.

Average est.

1.203

Range

1.197 – 1.210

USDA July

1.201

USDA 2021

1.277

 

HRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

585

Range

580 - 590

USDA July

585

USDA 2021

749

 

SRW wheat – million bu.

Average est.

376

Range

372 - 380

USDA July

376

USDA 2021

358

 

White winter wheat – million bu.

Average est.

242

Range

239 - 250

USDA July

240

USDA 2021

167

 

Other spring wheat – million bu.

Average est.

510

Range

496 - 523

USDA July

503

USDA 2021

331

 

Durum wheat – million bu.

Average est.

77

Range

74 - 80

USDA July

NA

USDA 2021

77

 

 

 

Don’t forget about ending stocks... The focal point of Friday’s report data will be the U.S. crop estimates, but adjustments to USDA’s balance sheets could influence prices. Traders anticipate smaller U.S. new-crop ending stocks for corn and cotton, while soybean carryover is expected to be unchanged and wheat ending stocks are likely to increase. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey (Bloomberg for cotton):

 

Expectations for U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

1.512

1.402

Range

1.363 – 1.560

1.285 – 1.485

USDA July

1.510

1.470

 

 

Soybeans – million bushels

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

226

230

Range

210 - 255

175 - 320

USDA July

215

230

 

 

Wheat – million bushels

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

650

Range

NA

607 - 676

USDA July

660

639

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

2.17

Range

NA

1.90 – 2.50

USDA July

3.40

2.40

 

 

Expectations for Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

312.40

309.82

Range

310.80 – 314.20

302.00 – 314.00

USDA July

312.28

312.94

 

 

Soybeans – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

88.95

99.47

Range

87.71 – 90.00

97.50 – 103.10

USDA July

88.73

99.61

 

 

Wheat – MMT

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

279.98

268.00

Range

278.00 – 281.10

265.00 – 273.00

USDA July

280.10

267.52

 

 

Cotton – million bales

 

2021-22

2022-23

Average est.

NA

83.68

Range

NA

83.00 – 84.30

USDA July

84.04

84.26

 

Latest News

H&P report reflects larger than expected herd contraction

USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd has contracted to 73.8 million head as of Sept.1, down 1.1 million head (1.4%) from year-ago and 468,000 head smaller than the average pre-report estimate.

After the Bell | September 29, 2022

Grain, soybean futures end mixed ahead of USDA's quarterly stocks; USDA reports further hog herd contraction.

Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Pro Farmer editors provide daily updates on advice, including if now is a good time to catch up on cash sales.

Putin to Ratify Election Results | September 29, 2022

NATO rules Nordstream breech sabotage, Ian shuts-in some Gulf energy production and today's H&P Report expected to show mild herd contraction...

Market Watch | September 29, 2022

Sharp drop in cash corn and soybean prices over the past week.

Currencies
Analysts/economists keeping a close watch on major currency fluctuations

Sharp fluctuations in some of the world’s major currencies are injecting new uncertainty into the global economic outlook.